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如果不了解您的心，宁静又怎么能产生？■ (Translation of the red text: If you don't understand your heart, how can you be peaceful?)

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MARINA OTTAWAY, NATHAN J. BROWN, AMR HAMZAWY, KARIM SADJADPOUR, PAUL SALEM THE NEW MIDDLE EAST CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE WASHINGTON DC • MOSCOW • BEIRUT • BRUSSELS

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The New Middle East Marina Ottaway Nathan J. Brown Amr Hamzawy Karim Sadjadpour Paul Salem CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE WASHINGTON DC • MOSCOW • BEIJING • BEIRUT • BRUSSELS

Contents Acknowledgments iv A Changed Region 1 The Realities of the New Middle East 4 The Iran–Iraq Cluster 4 The Syria–Lebanon Cluster 10 The Israeli–Palestinian Conflict 14 The Problem of Nuclear P

This text examines the transformed landscape of the Middle East, analyzing key conflicts in regions such as Iran-Iraq, Syria-Lebanon, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It addresses crucial issues

A Changed Region After September 11, 2001, the Bush administration launched an ambitious policy to forge a new Middle East, with intervention in Iraq as the driver of the transformation. "The establi

This analysis reflects on the changes in the Middle East following the events of September 11, 2001, highlighting the ambitious policies of the Bush administration aimed at establishing democracy and

There has been no successful democratic revolution in any Middle Eastern country. Instead, the democratic openings advocated and supported by the United States have either led to sectarian division or

This text discusses the lack of successful democratic revolutions in the Middle East, largely due to U.S. policies that have often led to sectarian division and the empowerment of Islamist groups. It

security was completely overshadowed by belligerent White House statements that U.S. policy toward Iran would remain unchanged, raising the specter of war. Although analysts agreed that the NIE’s conc

The U.S. faces significant challenges in the Middle East with three clusters of countries: Iran-Iraq, Lebanon-Syria, and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. The ongoing tensions with Iran, alongside U.S

The Reality of the New Middle East The first step toward the formulation of a new policy is to understand the realities of the new Middle East as it is now. The three clusters of countries — Iran–Ira

The new Middle East is defined by three country clusters: Iran–Iraq, Lebanon–Syria, and Palestine–Israel, intertwined with issues such as nuclear proliferation and sectarianism. The U.S. faces not jus

albeit it is still inappropriate to talk about an axis. Iraq's problems, and possible solutions, are so closely intertwined with Iran that it is no longer possible to discuss solutions for Iraq withou

Iraq's current situation as a failed state is deeply intertwined with Iran's influence. The U.S. invasion has led to a power struggle, making it impossible for Iraq to function effectively. Political

the United States during 2007 has helped reduce violence, there has not been any corresponding political progress. Different Iraqi political figures and forces have competing and often changing vision

Post-2007, the United States achieved a reduction in violence in Iraq, yet significant political progress remains elusive. Iraqi political factions hold varying visions for the nation's future, with t