Challenges of U.S. Policy in the Middle East : หน้า 9/52

security was completely overshadowed by belligerent White House statements that U.S. policy toward Iran would remain unchanged, raising the specter of war. Although analysts agreed that the NIE’s conclusions effectively precluded the use of force by the United States against Iran, the White House pointedly insisted the option remained on the table. Similarly, while inviting Syria to Annapolis, the administration did not agree to put on the agenda the issue of the Golan Heights, nor did it hide its opposition to the possibility of Israeli–Syrian negotiations on the matter. Three clusters of countries and three major issues present particular challenges for the United States in the new Middle East. All of them have been negatively affected by U.S. policies in the last few years. Developments in the Iran–Iraq cluster present significant threats to U.S. security. The Lebanon–Syria cluster is not as threatening, but it has become a highly unstable area that affects the surrounding countries. The Palestinian–Israeli conflict has turned from a chronic problem into a major obstacle to cooperation with even friendly regimes in the area. The three clusters are not unrelated to each other, but it is helpful to examine them separately at the outset. U.S. policy makers also confront a set of region-wide problems. The first is the challenge of nuclear proliferation, which is most acute in relation to Iran but goes beyond it, with a growing number of Arab countries talking of developing a nuclear capacity. The second is the dilemma posed for the United States by domestic political struggles in many countries, initially favored by the United States as part of a program of democratic transformations, but from which the United States has backtracked, undermining U.S. credibility and raising questions about its intentions. The third is the growing saliency of sectarianism.