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MARINA OTTAWAY, NATHAN J. BROWN, AMR HAMZAWY, KARIM SADJADPOUR, PAUL SALEM THE NEW MIDDLE EAST CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE WASHINGTON DC • MOSCOW • BEIRUT • BRUSSELS

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The New Middle East Marina Ottaway Nathan J. Brown Amr Hamzawy Karim Sadjadpour Paul Salem CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE WASHINGTON DC • MOSCOW • BEIJING • BEIRUT • BRUSSELS

Contents Acknowledgments iv A Changed Region 1 The Realities of the New Middle East 4 The Iran–Iraq …

This text examines the transformed landscape of the Middle East, analyzing key conflicts in regions such as Iran-Iraq, Syria-Lebanon, and the…

A Changed Region After September 11, 2001, the Bush administration launched an ambitious policy to for…

This analysis reflects on the changes in the Middle East following the events of September 11, 2001, highlighting the am…

There has been no successful democratic revolution in any Middle Eastern country. Instead, the democratic openings advoca…

This text discusses the lack of successful democratic revolutions in the Middle East, largely due to U.S. policies…

security was completely overshadowed by belligerent White House statements that U.S. policy toward Iran…

The U.S. faces significant challenges in the Middle East with three clusters of countries: Iran-Iraq, Lebanon-Sy…

The Reality of the New Middle East The first step toward the formulation of a new policy is to understand the realities of the new Middle East as it is now. The three clusters of countrie…

The new Middle East is defined by three country clusters: Iran–Iraq, Lebanon–Syria, and Palestine–Israel, intertwined with issues such as nuc…

…it it is still inappropriate to talk about an axis. Iraq's problems, and possible solutions, are so closely intertwined with Iran that it is no longer possible to discuss solutions for Iraq without tak…

Iraq's current situation as a failed state is deeply intertwined with Iran's influence. The U.S. invasion ha…

the United States during 2007 has helped reduce violence, there has not been any corresponding political progress. Different Iraqi political figur…

Post-2007, the United States achieved a reduction in violence in Iraq, yet significant political progress remains elusive. Iraqi po…

nizations with local roots. They understand the importance and advantages of a decentralized system. They appear to ha…

This text examines the intricate dynamics of Sunni political groups in Iraq amid changing power structures. Local organizations s…

It is out of this reality of conflicting and changing political agendas that a political agreement would have to be forged to tran…

This text examines the complex realities of Iraq's political environment following the fall of Saddam Hussein and the subseq…

to be cooperative on its own terms and for its own interests, but this does not mean that the United States…

This text explores the multifaceted relationship between the United States and Iran, emphasizing the challenges faced by U.S. milit…

represented by the March 8 forces led by Hizbollah and the Syrian regime, seen as proxies for Iran and its policy of region…

This content discusses the influence of Syria and Iran on Lebanon's political environment, particularly th…

but set aside its criticism when this was in its interest. It was never in agreement with the United States and sought …

… explores the evolving relationship between Syria and the United States, highlighting key moments such as the leadership transition from Hafez al-Assad to Bashar al-Assad, the impact of the Iraq War, a…

REALTIES OF THE NEW MIDDLE EAST 13 always been the possibility that Syria could be coaxed and pressured into adopting more pragmatic policies. Revived U.S. efforts to relaunch…

The text discusses the political realities of Lebanon following Syria's withdrawal and the influence of Hizbollah…

port they enjoyed, gave names to the rival groupings: the March14 anti-Syrian forces and the March 8 pro-Syrian forces. The March 14 demonstrations, which in the …

This text discusses the political dynamics in Lebanon following the Cedar Revolution, highlighting the division be…

REALITIES OF THE NEW MIDDLE EAST 15 tion of the international consensus, obscures a deeper problem: realities on the ground have already destroyed much of the viab…

The viability of the two-state solution in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is increasingly in question due to the weakened Palestinian leadership and diminishing trust…

But the Bush administration showed little interest in the peace process. Instead, it pursued a set of policies that either downgraded Israeli–Palestinian peacemak…

The Bush administration exhibited a lack of interest in the peace process and instead directed policies that undermined Israeli-Palestinian…