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…r three years after the nuclear program was revealed, in January 2006 Iran announced that it was resuming the suspended uranium conversion and enrichment activities, despite being referred to the UN Sec…

The text discusses Iran's unwavering commitment to its nuclear program, spurred by various factors, including U.S. sanctions, the Iraq war, and surging oil prices. Despite hints of military action fro

…nited States and European countries have so far been unable to curb Iran’s ambitions to enrich uranium and master the nuclear fuel cycle, rather than rely solely on third countries to provide Iran with …

This text discusses the complex dynamics of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East, particularly focusing on Israel's alleged nuclear capabilities and Iran's nuclear program. It highlights the risks

…nally devote sustained, high-level attention to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, beginning in the summer of 2007 with preparations for what became the Annapolis conference, the administration showed an…

…arly during the Bush administration's attempt to revitalize the peace process under challenging circumstances. It critiques the assumption held by the administration that a two-state solution is viable …

…tate that did not exist and in an environment in which an elected parliament could not muster a quorum, because many deputies were in prison. Nor could democracy be promoted by an administration that ac…

…g of Palestinian institutions hindered the prospects for progress. High-level diplomatic efforts resumed in 2007 with the Annapolis conference, yet flaws in the American approach and shifting ground rea…

…nce 1967 moved glacially from quiet hostility to the idea of a Palestinian state to the implicit assumption that it would be an eventual outcome of negotiations. Only in his last days in office did Pres…

The viability of the two-state solution in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is increasingly in question due to the weakened Palestinian leadership and diminishing trust between Palestinians and Israel

…ial Nationalist parties, and a portion of the Christian community. The elections held in the early summer only hardened the split. Held on the basis of an old Syrian-devised electoral law that gerrymand…

This text discusses the political dynamics in Lebanon following the Cedar Revolution, highlighting the division between the anti-Syrian March 14 coalition and the pro-Syrian March 8 forces. It outline

…ven warlords out to secure their own political and sectarian interests in the Lebanese political scrum. And while the Cedar Revolution was an important nationalist reaction against Syrian domination, it…

This content discusses the influence of Syria and Iran on Lebanon's political environment, particularly the roles of the March 8 forces led by Hizbollah, and the March 14 coalition resisting Syrian co

… demand from energy-hungry China and India. Sanctions are not likely to be effective under such circumstances, particularly since it is clear that they will never be respected by all countries. The mili…

This text explores the multifaceted relationship between the United States and Iran, emphasizing the challenges faced by U.S. military policy amidst high oil prices and ongoing conflicts. It discusses

…fourth reality is that, short of an armed intervention, the United States does not have strong instruments to force the Iranian regime to change its policies. Iran has at times decided CARNEGIE ENDOWME…

This text discusses the significant changes in the balance of power in the Middle East following the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq and the subsequent rise of Iranian influence in the region. The removal o

… Iraq once again from a failed state into a functioning one. It would be a tall order under any circumstances. It is even more daunting, since all the important players, without exception, are armed, ar…

This text examines the complex realities of Iraq's political environment following the fall of Saddam Hussein and the subsequent rise of Iran as a powerful regional entity. It highlights the challenge

…ad to meet within a few months in order for U.S. support to continue—without such agreement, the argument went, the U.S. military effort would be wasted. By the fall of 2007, it had become clear that th…

This text examines the intricate dynamics of Sunni political groups in Iraq amid changing power structures. Local organizations show a preference for decentralized systems, often in conflict with each

…nsistent with the goal. The goals of others in Iraq are much more fluid. Because they are the most numerous group, with the most members of parliament and control over the office of the prime minister, …

Post-2007, the United States achieved a reduction in violence in Iraq, yet significant political progress remains elusive. Iraqi political factions hold varying visions for the nation's future, with t

…to do so until mid-2007, despite the presence of 140,000 U.S. troops. The surge that increased the number of U.S. troops by 30,000 has succeeded in reducing violence, although levels are still extremely…

Iraq's current situation as a failed state is deeply intertwined with Iran's influence. The U.S. invasion has led to a power struggle, making it impossible for Iraq to function effectively. Political

…egion risks making the problem worse, rather than solving it. The Iran–Iraq Cluster One of the arguments used by the Bush administration in justifying the war in Iraq was the existence of an axis of e…

The new Middle East is defined by three country clusters: Iran–Iraq, Lebanon–Syria, and Palestine–Israel, intertwined with issues such as nuclear proliferation and sectarianism. The U.S. faces not jus

… nuclear proliferation, which is most acute in relation to Iran but goes beyond it, with a growing number of Arab countries talking of developing a nuclear capacity. The second is the dilemma posed for …

The U.S. faces significant challenges in the Middle East with three clusters of countries: Iran-Iraq, Lebanon-Syria, and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. The ongoing tensions with Iran, alongside U.S

…d not to cooperate fully with the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) and to enrich uranium contrary to UN resolutions. However, this valid reminder of Iran's ongoing challenge to internation…

This text discusses the lack of successful democratic revolutions in the Middle East, largely due to U.S. policies that have often led to sectarian division and the empowerment of Islamist groups. It

…ng a new region of democracy and peace in which old disputes would become irrelevant. The idea was summarized in a statement by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice during the war between Lebanon and Isr…

…cant internal divisions among Palestinians and the implications of unilateral Israeli actions. The summary underscores that while some regimes faced challenges, including Syria's diminished role after i…

Contents Acknowledgments iv A Changed Region 1 The Realities of the New Middle East 4 The Iran–Iraq Cluster 4 The Syria–Lebanon Cluster 10 The Israeli–Palestinian Conflict 14 The Problem of Nuclear P

…tanding sectarian conflicts and the failures of previous agendas aimed at promoting freedom. The document offers strategic insights into dealing with the new dynamics by addressing specific issues like …

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…Ltd. 出版日：泰国法身寺法身基金会2009年初版 版权所有：泰国法身寺（Wat Phra Dhammakaya） 23/2, Moo7, Khlong Sam, Khlong Luang, Patumtani, 12120, Thailand 本书的内容与版权均归法身基金会所有。有此书任何部分，在未经出版社允许的情况下，请勿翻版或刊登在任何检索系统或以任何其他方式播放、复印、收录等。 ------…

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