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port they enjoyed, gave names to the rival groupings: the March14 anti-Syrian forces and the March 8 pro-Syrian forces. The March 14 demonstrations, which in the U.S. narrative became the Cedar Revolu

This text discusses the political dynamics in Lebanon following the Cedar Revolution, highlighting the division between the anti-Syrian March 14 coalition and the pro-Syrian March 8 forces. It outline

REALITIES OF THE NEW MIDDLE EAST 15 tion of the international consensus, obscures a deeper problem: realities on the ground have already destroyed much of the viability of the two-state solution. The

The viability of the two-state solution in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is increasingly in question due to the weakened Palestinian leadership and diminishing trust between Palestinians and Israel

But the Bush administration showed little interest in the peace process. Instead, it pursued a set of policies that either downgraded Israeli–Palestinian peacemaking or subordinated it to demands for

The Bush administration exhibited a lack of interest in the peace process and instead directed policies that undermined Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, proposing a sequence of reform before peace th

Palestinian legislative elections to proceed credibly — but then led to an immediate American effort to overturn the result through any possible means. The Bush administration’s short attention span f

The text discusses the complications surrounding the Palestinian legislative elections and the subsequent U.S. effort to undermine the democratic outcome, particularly emphasizing the Bush administrat

be recognized, but nobody should expect them to move beyond reactive diplomacy any time soon. Paradoxically, the Bush administration decided to refocus on the peace process just as conditions had beco

The text examines the U.S. diplomatic strategies regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, particularly during the Bush administration's attempt to revitalize the peace process under challenging cir

tember 2007 Israeli bombing of what Israelis claim was a suspicious facility in Syria. But the issue of Israel’s nuclear weapons is perennially off the table. The United States, along with most other

This text discusses the complex dynamics of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East, particularly focusing on Israel's alleged nuclear capabilities and Iran's nuclear program. It highlights the risks

"choose your own future and win your freedom."2 To make matters worse, in September 2006 the U.S. Congress passed the Iran Freedom Support Act, which imposed mandatory sanctions on entities that suppl

The text discusses Iran's unwavering commitment to its nuclear program, spurred by various factors, including U.S. sanctions, the Iraq war, and surging oil prices. Despite hints of military action fro

REALTIES OF THE NEW MIDDLE EAST 21 otherwise unwelcome consequences..... And another message should be equally clear: leaders who abandon the pursuit of chemical, biological and nuclear weapons, and

This text discusses the complexities and challenges in the New Middle East, particularly regarding nuclear ambitions of countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and the decline of the U.S. freedom agend

22 THE NEW MIDDLE EAST few, limited in scope, carried out only when allowed by incumbent regimes, and dropped quickly when governments objected. After September 11, President Bush openly repudiated th

This text discusses the shift in U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East following the September 11 attacks. President Bush's declaration of aligning American values of freedom and security contrasted

Rice gave a more detailed explanation of the American approach to democratic reform in a speech in Cairo in June 2005. In January 2006, the United States went further: it canceled a meeting planned to

In a speech in Cairo in June 2005, Rice underscored U.S. democratic reform measures. The U.S. reacted to Egypt's governance by canceling a free-trade agreement due to human rights concerns. While some

The weakness of the secular opposition is not entirely of its own making. Arab authoritarian and semi-authoritarian regimes—many of which have been ruling their societies in the name of secular ideolo

In Arab societies, secular opposition has struggled against longstanding authoritarian regimes that repress liberal ideologies, while conservative social attitudes limit their political expression. A

retrenchment into a more ideological posture by a movement that has sought, but has so far been denied, a legitimate political role. The adoption and subsequent abandonment of the freedom agenda broug

The text discusses the complexities faced in promoting democracy in Arab nations, highlighting the influence of incumbent regimes resistant to political reform. It notes that, despite potential allies

failed to attract a substantial following. Finally, the growing importance of Hizbollah in Lebanon is probably another factor. Hizbollah has become not only a domestic player capable of paralyzing the

This text analyzes the socio-political dynamics affecting Shi’a Muslims in the Middle East, highlighting their status in various countries, including Iran, Iraq, and Bahrain. While Hizbollah has estab

Discrimination inevitably breeds discontent and resentment, and those certainly exist among Shi’i minorities in the Gulf and, of course, in Lebanon. The real question, however, is whether this resentm

The text examines the roots of resentment among Shi’i minorities in the Gulf and Lebanon, noting its implications for political activism. Discrimination and resentment have led to instances of violenc

Although Iran is a center around which Shi’i resentment could coalesce, two factors reduce the likelihood that the Tehran regime will encourage such a development. One is that Iran aspires to be the c

The complexities of Iran's relationship with Sunni states underscore the ongoing challenges in Middle Eastern diplomacy. Iran seeks to be a leader in the region, supporting not only Shiite factions bu

None of this remarkable spate of diplomatic activity has so far removed the underlying tension between Sunni regimes and the government in Tehran. Fear of a nuclear Iran in the region remains quite hi

Despite a series of diplomatic initiatives aimed at alleviating tensions between Sunni governments and the Iranian regime, fears of a nuclear Iran persist in the region. Both parties seem committed to

Dealing With the New Middle East The Bush administration's attempt to shape a new Middle East has been a major factor in the emergence of the new and extremely problematic realities we have discussed

The Bush administration's policies have complicated the realities in the Middle East. A new approach is needed, prioritizing diplomacy and a clear understanding of U.S. limits in the region. Confronta

policy in Iraq and of the Palestinian–Israeli peace process. The United States needs to recognize that terrorism is not the result of blind hatred of Western civilization, as the Bush administration i

This text argues that U.S. policies in the Middle East must shift to address underlying political issues to effectively curb terrorism and ensure oil flow. It outlines critical tasks for U.S. engageme

Israel and Palestine U.S. core interests in the region include peace between Israelis and Palestinians, which would have as a corollary peace between Israel and all Arab countries. The only solution

The pursuit of peace in the Israel-Palestine conflict hinges on the two-state solution, which aims to protect Israel's existence and Palestinian rights. Achieving this requires strong Palestinian lead

But it is impossible to turn back the clock to more propitious circumstances. The biggest tension—between integrating Hamas and denying the movement its proclaimed goal of destroying Israel—can only b

The text discusses the challenges of integrating Hamas while managing its actions against Israel. It stresses the importance of regional pressures and U.S. support for a unified Palestinian government