Navigating the Complexities of U.S.-Middle East Relations : หน้า 41/52

But it is impossible to turn back the clock to more propitious circumstances. The biggest tension—between integrating Hamas and denying the movement its proclaimed goal of destroying Israel—can only be met by building on one of the few diplomatic successes the Bush administration has had: the involvement of Arab states. By cornering Hamas between regional pressure and domestic opinion demanding prosperity, it may be possible to wrest Hamas from pursuit of the most extreme elements of its agenda. It is unrealistic to expect a total repudiation by Hamas of its vision of an Islamic state, but it is possible to work toward a situation in which the movement’s leaders are compelled to accept that the logic of events is leading in a direction they are powerless to stop (as actually happened for a brief period in the 1990s). Thus, the United States must cease pretending that Abu Mazin heads a viable Palestinian prototype, that he has sufficient domestic legitimacy to conclude an agreement, and that the harsh isolation of Gaza can be calibrated carefully enough to lead the population to embrace the Fatah-led government in Ramallah and still prevent starvation. There can be no harm (and there may be some good) in attempting to sketch out what an Israeli–Palestinian peace treaty would look like, partly because it would force a far greater level of political honesty from leaders on both sides than existed during the Oslo period. But such efforts cannot supplant the longer-term and more difficult task of resuscitating a viable Palestinian leadership. That task will require that the United States convert from a policy based on severe sanctions against Hamas and the territory it controls and instead come to terms with a revival of a Palestinian national unity government like the one that existed until June 2006. The United States must then support the conclusion of a cease-fire between the new united Palestinian government and Israel and promote an agreement among Palestinian groups on mechanisms for negotiating longer-term issues with Israel. Balance of Power The regional balance of power that was maintained by Iraq and Iran has been broken with the demise of Saddam Hussein and the subsequent collapse of Iraq. As a result, the United States and some of Iraq’s neighbors worry about the growing power of Iran and are seeking to restore some balance by using different approaches. The United States has tried to restore that balance through its own presence in Iraq and by trying to form an anti-Iranian alliance. Arab countries, especially those around the Gulf, have been searching for alternative policies combining containment and diplomacy. In 2007, the Gulf countries signed various weapons deals with the United States, Britain, and Russia in what seemed to be the beginning of a regional arms race aimed at counterbalancing Iran. But they have also reached out diplomatically to Iran. In view of the failure of U.S. policy so far, the diplomatic activities of Arab countries need to be recognized and, if possible supported, in conjunction with the policy of engagement toward Iran suggested earlier. Arab diplomatic efforts, if successful, hold the possibility of