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… and economies. Other problems cutting across the region include still rampant population growth in many countries and the inability of the region’s economies, even those of the richest countries, to abs…

The new Middle East is defined by three country clusters: Iran–Iraq, Lebanon–Syria, and Palestine–Israel, intertwined with issues such as nuclear proliferation and sectarianism. The U.S. faces not jus

…ing and out of proportion to the size of modern military forces that rely on technology rather than manpower. Finding a political situation that will make the state viable without outside intervention ha…

Iraq's current situation as a failed state is deeply intertwined with Iran's influence. The U.S. invasion has led to a power struggle, making it impossible for Iraq to function effectively. Political

which ended conclusively with a UN-mandated cease-fire and eventually a return to the status quo, made it very clear that neither country …

This text discusses the significant changes in the balance of power in the Middle East following the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq and the subsequent rise of Iranian influence in the region. The removal o

…n Iraq; oil prices are near their historical high and likely to remain high because of increasing demand from energy-hungry China and India. Sanctions are not likely to be effective under such circumstan…

This text explores the multifaceted relationship between the United States and Iran, emphasizing the challenges faced by U.S. military policy amidst high oil prices and ongoing conflicts. It discusses

…pable of bringing the Lebanese civil war to an end. This American approval of Syrian occupation and management of Lebanon prevailed from 1990 to 2003. Syria's opposition to the U.S. invasion of Iraq chan…

The text explores the evolving relationship between Syria and the United States, highlighting key moments such as the leadership transition from Hafez al-Assad to Bashar al-Assad, the impact of the Ir

… Thus, it is important to outline the realities of Lebanon at the present time. LEBANON. There are many levels to Lebanon’s current reality. The first is that, despite the withdrawal of Syrian troops, t…

The text discusses the political realities of Lebanon following Syria's withdrawal and the influence of Hizbollah and other political factions. Despite Syrian troop withdrawal, control issues persist,

…ed off from the Bush administration’s audacious vision for regional transformation. Bush’s boldness manifested itself in three ways. First, he was the first American president in generations to use “Pale…

The viability of the two-state solution in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is increasingly in question due to the weakened Palestinian leadership and diminishing trust between Palestinians and Israel

…olitical level — both societies show signs of growing despair, exhaustion, and disillusionment in a manner that makes bold leadership almost unimaginable. Surrounding Arab states—whose involvement would …

The text discusses the complications surrounding the Palestinian legislative elections and the subsequent U.S. effort to undermine the democratic outcome, particularly emphasizing the Bush administrat

…ment of a nuclear capability by unfriendly countries and rogue regimes, because proliferation poses many risks: a) nuclear weapons or nuclear material for manufacturing dirty bombs could be used by a gov…

This text discusses the complex dynamics of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East, particularly focusing on Israel's alleged nuclear capabilities and Iran's nuclear program. It highlights the risks

…tters worse, in September 2006 the U.S. Congress passed the Iran Freedom Support Act, which imposed mandatory sanctions on entities that supply goods or services for Iran’s conventional weapons programs …

The text discusses Iran's unwavering commitment to its nuclear program, spurred by various factors, including U.S. sanctions, the Iraq war, and surging oil prices. Despite hints of military action fro

… and to show their goodwill even introduced some modest reforms that did not limit their power. But many regimes also resented the United States’ newly critical attitude toward them. This was true in par…

This text discusses the shift in U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East following the September 11 attacks. President Bush's declaration of aligning American values of freedom and security contrasted

…government’s attempt to curb the opposition, in particular the imprisonment on dubious charges of Ayman Nour, the leader of a new liberal opposition party. Egypt’s response to the pressure from the Unite…

…eform measures. The U.S. reacted to Egypt's governance by canceling a free-trade agreement due to human rights concerns. While some reforms were proposed in Egypt, they were undercut by restrictive regul…

…lar opposition is not entirely of its own making. Arab authoritarian and semi-authoritarian regimes—many of which have been ruling their societies in the name of secular ideologies—have long employed rep…

In Arab societies, secular opposition has struggled against longstanding authoritarian regimes that repress liberal ideologies, while conservative social attitudes limit their political expression. A

… countries makes quick transitions to democracy in the region impossible. Even if the United States managed to reconcile its long- and short-term goals sufficiently to pursue a consistent policy concerni…

The text discusses the complexities faced in promoting democracy in Arab nations, highlighting the influence of incumbent regimes resistant to political reform. It notes that, despite potential allies

…ful strategy for Iran. The third reality is that there is a great deal of discontent among Shi’a in many Arab countries, because they are faced with deep-seated institutional discrimination and tend to h…

…estricts Shi’a from high-ranking government posts and limits their electoral influence through gerrymandering. Reports indicate ongoing demographic changes as the government seeks to 'Sunni-ize' the popu…

…ted through wise policy; others can at best be contained. Still others will have to be accepted for many years as part of a new Middle East landscape that has changed, but not for the better. The first p…

The Bush administration's policies have complicated the realities in the Middle East. A new approach is needed, prioritizing diplomacy and a clear understanding of U.S. limits in the region. Confronta

…srael into the region but to a very cold peace, like the one that exists between Israel and Egypt—a manageably cantankerous relationship between Israel and its neighbor. The elements necessary to revive…

The pursuit of peace in the Israel-Palestine conflict hinges on the two-state solution, which aims to protect Israel's existence and Palestinian rights. Achieving this requires strong Palestinian lead

…the involvement of Arab states. By cornering Hamas between regional pressure and domestic opinion demanding prosperity, it may be possible to wrest Hamas from pursuit of the most extreme elements of its …

The text discusses the challenges of integrating Hamas while managing its actions against Israel. It stresses the importance of regional pressures and U.S. support …

…among all countries in the region and the diplomatic activity is an effort to contain it. There are many indications as well that Arab countries are seeking their own ways of dealing with Iran. President…

This text discusses the changing power dynamics in the Middle East, particularly the region's responses to Iranian influence and the evolving role of the U.S. Historically reliant on American support,

…short run. While the United States cannot completely abandon the democracy agenda, given internal demands for change in Arab countries, democracy promotion needs to be relauched as a long-term goal of th…

This text discusses the need for a nuanced U.S. policy toward Syria, recognizing its limited ambitions while encouraging a shift away from its spoiler role in Lebanon and alignment with Iran. It furth