The Evolving Dynamics of Power in the Middle East : หน้า 42/52

36 THE NEW MIDDLE EAST restoring a balance of power that is not entirely dependent on a long-term, large U.S. military presence with its financial costs and negative political perceptions in the region. The United States has not been part of these initiatives and does not trust them, fearing that they are simply a sign that Gulf countries are capitulating to Iran. In reality, concern about growing Iranian power is real among all countries in the region and the diplomatic activity is an effort to contain it. There are many indications as well that Arab countries are seeking their own ways of dealing with Iran. President Ahmadinejad in December 2007 was invited to attend the meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council in Doha. While the invitation was apparently less than full-hearted, and all Gulf countries remained extremely worried about Iran’s nuclear problem, the invitation also was one more sign that Iran’s neighbors were shunning confrontation. Finally, the Saudi government, historically close to the United States, made it clear it was seeking to diversify its external support. In February 2007 it hosted President Vladimir Putin in Riyadh and announced a flurry of new trade agreements. In November 2007 Saudi Crown Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz visited Moscow to discuss, among other issues, a large Saudi purchase of Russian weapons. U.S. policy toward Lebanon and Syria, elevated in recent years to the status of a confrontation between democracy and autocracy or even theocracy, needs to be brought back to a more realistic perspective. To be sure, a sovereign and functioning Lebanon would contribute to the stability of the Levant, but, in a vicious circle, Lebanese sovereignty cannot be restored as long as the region is so unstable: for decades now, political factions in Lebanon have been more than willing to sacrifice the country’s sovereignty by inviting in outside allies to further their own goals. As long as the region remains unstable, all Lebanese factions will find allies willing to support them for their own ends. And while a Syria closely allied to Iran and hostile to Israel is a destabilizing element in the Levant, the solution is not to confront Syria but to support the peace process, including Israeli–Syrian negotiations about the return of the Golan Heights, and to deal more effectively with Iran. The problem of the Lebanon–Syria cluster is the consequence of a wider crisis, not its cause, and must be tackled as such. In practice, this means that the United States needs to encourage and support compromise and reconciliation within Lebanon. Since the end of 2007, the United States has started recognizing the need for compromise among the political factions on the issue of the choice of a new president. That policy must be continued more explicitly and firmly. In fact, it is important for the United States to step back and let countries in the region take the lead in pushing the Lebanese toward reconciliation. The United States should be aware that a compromise solution will currently entail an armed Hizbollah and continuing Syrian influence. The best that U.S. policy can achieve in Lebanon is a country that is neither completely dominated by Syria nor a battleground for U.S. and Israeli confrontations with their enemies in the region. This can be achieved by supporting the election of a compromise president as part of the formation of an inclusive national unity government, the drafting of a new election law, and the holding of parliamentary elections on schedule in the spring of 2009. ___________________________ CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE