Realities of the New Middle East : หน้า 19/52

REALTIES OF THE NEW MIDDLE EAST 13 always been the possibility that Syria could be coaxed and pressured into adopting more pragmatic policies. Revived U.S. efforts to relaunch the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, culminating in the Annapolis meeting in November 2007, renewed Syria’s hope of regaining control of the Golan Heights. Syria participated in the meeting and appeared determined to at least start mending its fences with other Arab states, although there was no obvious change in its position on Lebanon. While it was unclear how much Syria was willing to compromise on other issues to get back its territory, it was all too clear that the policy of confrontation was not working either. While the United States had pushed Syria out of Lebanon, it had also created a political stalemate there. Thus, it is important to outline the realities of Lebanon at the present time. LEBANON. There are many levels to Lebanon’s current reality. The first is that, despite the withdrawal of Syrian troops, the state security institutions still do not control the entire country, and so have not succeeded in reestablishing the monopoly of power, which is the first building block of statehood. Large parts of the country, including the southern suburbs of Beirut, much of the south, and the Beqaa Valley, are under the control of Hizbollah. Palestinian refugee camps are also outside Lebanese control. In addition, Syrian security networks maintain a covert presence. The second reality is that Syria has maintained strong political influence through its main ally Hizbollah, its links to Speaker of Parliament and Amal leader Nabih Berri, and a new indirect supporter in the Christian community, the formerly anti-Syrian general Michel Aoun. Through Hizbollah and these two figures, the pro-Syrian opposition has been able to besiege downtown Beirut, prevent the parliament from meeting, and paralyze the government. U.S. attempts, backed by France, to eliminate Syria as a key political player initially appeared successful. The United States refocused on the implementation of the neglected Syria Accountability Act. It insisted on implementation of the UN Security Council Resolution 1559 of August 2004, which called for noninterference in Lebanon’s presidential elections and an immediate Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon. It engineered adoption by the UN Security Council Resolution 1595, which created a commission to investigate the assassination of Rafiq al-Hariri. Syria withdrew its troops in April 2005 after a stay of 29 years. The Bashar regime was shaken, particularly after a preliminary UN investigation into the assassination pointed the finger at Syria. Success was short-lived. Bashar quickly reasserted himself domestically and so did Syria’s allies in Lebanon. Hizbollah in particular showed strength in the elections, remained committed to its alliance with Syria and Iran, and displayed unwavering hostility to American influence in Lebanon. The third reality is that the scramble for power since the Syrian withdrawal has exacerbated sectarianism, creating a level of polarization not seen since the civil war. The assassination of former prime minister al-Hariri and the string of assassinations that followed, which are widely blamed on the Syrians, forced all parties to take sides, and the Lebanese body politic became sharply and explicitly divided between anti- and pro-Syrian forces. Rival massive demonstrations in Beirut in early March, where both sides competed to show how much su-